Prediction is difficult, especially about the future

When I sit down to write these words it can be at various times of day in various locations. This Wednesday evening I am on the train from Edinburgh bound for Huntly station where my car is parked.

By the time of publication, quite a lot will have happened. We shall have elected a new Council, and the Westminster election will be a week closer to a conclusion.

One of our famous Scots is the Brahan Seer. And if he had been kind enough to include in his predictions the results of the two elections to come I could write about them confidently and informatively. I can’t.

But I can write about politicians. As someone who worked for a bank for 30 years – as a computer specialist rather than a banker – some suggest that I moved from banking to politics to improve my reputation. Being active in politics does not earn one much esteem. It should.

Last time I looked there were some 300 political parties registered with the Electoral Commission. Most will never achieve electoral success. Most you will never hear of. Just over a dozen, including the Northern Irish parties, are serious players.

And here’s the point. Almost everyone who stands for elected office in their name does so because they want to improve the lot of their fellow citizens. I don’t need to use the fingers of a second hand to count those I have met who stand for their own selfish reasons.

So in that spirit I thank all who stood in the Council elections. Regardless of their political philosophy or policies. I draw the line only against those who discriminate against others for what they are rather than what they do.

And Councillors have the most thankless job in public life. They are paid well under the average wage and the best of them work so many hours that they earn below the minimum wage per hour. And have little staff support to help them do their job.

Hundreds of candidates failed to be elected. But spent 100s of hours without reward on the campaign trail. And friends and party colleagues will have multiplied that.

The recent Presidential election in the United States saw the two main contenders spend over a billion dollars between them. Our election costs are trivial by comparison and for Council you can stand, and the occasional candidate can win, without spending anything but their own time.

To the newly elected I say, you will meet people in distress – listen, empathise and keep any promise you make to them. Enjoy your moment of electoral success and remember the disappointed losers who stand behind you waiting for your first slip, hoping that it tumbles you from office next time.

And to the losers, especially those who previously tasted office, heartfelt thanks for putting yourself forward for the most wearing, sometimes irrational, job interview in your life.

Pick out the good bits from the experience and prepare for next time.

The Brahan Seer was boiled in oil for daring to predict the future.

I won’t try.