Numbers

Many years ago I was taught by a charismatic maths teacher.

“Doc” Ingles was a blunt Yorkshireman with a ferociously short, military haircut and occasionally a demeanour to match.

Full of eccentricities, he fascinated his pupils as much as he alarmed them. On the anniversary of our headmaster’s appointment he – the deputy head – wore a black tie. He thought he should have the job.

First year pupils would be taken around the school looking for infinity. I remember accompanying a search of the school dustbins, peering behind the blackboards and investigating the outside toilets.

We did not find infinity. But we retained the idea that it was a concept rather than a number.

The sixth year had an annual treat when they worked though his tax return. Was this to equip us for the future when we too would have to undertake that task? Or was it to show us how ill-rewarded even a senior maths teacher was?

Either, neither or both – we never found out. But the time spent with “Doc” was time well spent.

In the last few years the number of maths teachers has shrunk dramatically. Over a period during which our society’s need for numeracy has grown.

The craze for sudoku – a numbers based puzzle now appearing daily in certain papers – is hardly as important as our ability to manage money, remember PINs, understand statistics, but is a faint encouragement that numbers might become “cool”.

In Parliament last week, numbers once again moved to centre stage.

First we had a debate on student debt. Followed quickly by a round of health statistics at First Minister’s Questions. Only this week, mathematician and First Minister, Jack McConnell was in Africa. So lawyer, holder of a sixth form certificate in statistics, and Deputy First Minister, Jim Wallace was standing in.

Now exchanges between Nicola Sturgeon and the First Minister on the subject of the NHS at Question time are not new. The answer to “Is it working?” is probably what will win or lose the 2007 Scottish Parliament election.

Did the stand-in do better than the main man against Nicola?

Imagine that you standing in line for health care. The people in front of you will take varying times with the doctor. What matters to you is how long you wait.

To measure how well we are doing let us see how long the person in the middle of the queue has to wait for treatment. If the person in the middle has to wait longer this month than last it might be because there more people in the queue this month. Or maybe the queue is just moving slower.

If you get to front of the queue from the middle position faster than last month, the result is happiness. Longer to wait, result – grumpiness.

This way of looking at things is what government statisticians describe as "the most robust measurement of performance" – the median time to be technical about it.

The trouble is that if you are in the middle of the NHS queue you were waiting 5 days longer this month to enter hospital and six more days for an outpatient appointment.

So trying to defend the government’s record is difficult even if you have a certificate in statistics.

Our student debt debate suggested that fewer will have such a certificate in future.

An average graduate ends up with £18,500 in debts at the end of their course. Another year and more debt to train as a teacher hardly makes the profession attractive.

And for female graduates doubly so.

Many women will spend some years out of their chosen profession for child-rearing and may only work part-time thereafter.

If their earnings don’t exceed about £22,000 their debt will keep growing. In the worst cases women could end their working lives with between £30,000 and £40,000 owing to the Student Loan Company.

Because the repayments are through the tax system and until earning over £22,000 the debt piles up faster than the repayments.

So we take the risk that numeracy will decline as even fewer maths graduates pass on their skills and knowledge. Even fewer First Ministers, or their deputies, will understand the numbers they bandy about in Parliament.

Do We Kerr?

The National Health Service has been a topic of big debate for years. And with the resignation of the Chair of NHS24, many of the thoughts of people in our area are confirmed.

Recent changes in the NHS have not seemed to benefit the Broch. The revised “Out of Hours” GP service has led many to visit me at my surgeries.

Not everyone knows that only one town in Scotland with a population over 10,000 is more than an hour’s travel away from a major Accident and Emergency Unit – Yes, it is Fraserburgh.

So the report on the NHS which was laid before Parliament last week by Professor Kerr may matter a great deal to us.

Although we had statement by and questions to the Health Minister – also Kerr; Andy Kerr – it was well short of a full debate on current NHS issues and the professor’s conclusions. The government do not wish to have that until after the summer break.

They have promised a period of consultation on the Kerr report. So the challenge for members of the public is to read the report and respond. There will probably be a meeting on the topic in the North East over the next few months.

But if we do not make our views known, it will be assumed that we do not care about our NHS.
I will be responding and feeding in as many views of our communities as I can.
Show Kerr you care. Health Minister Andy Kerr that is.

Two Hundred up and Counting

Speaking about counting – or do I mean counting about speaking – this week saw me pass a significant personal milestone. My contribution to the debate on Ageism is the NHS was my 200th speech in Parliament.

Since my first speech on fishing nearly four years ago, I have spoken on every subject area, written about 120,000 words in articles, held 296 surgeries, driven 150,000 miles, asked 1,100 questions, attended over 1,000 constituency events and sent countless letters.

Now I will need to count other MSPs’ speeches and see where I stand in the statistics.